At one point, Biden’s odds of securing the nomination were assessed at 51%, but this figure has recently dropped to 45%. Meanwhile, Harris’s chances were initially at 37% and have since risen to 42%. Polymarket estimates Biden’s chances of winning the November election at 13%, slightly lower than Harris’s 15%.
Former President and likely Republican candidate Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the White House. “YES” shares in Polymarket’s contract on Trump recently traded at 61 cents. If Trump wins, each share will be paid out at $1 in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency pegged to the dollar. If he loses, the shares will be worthless. Therefore, the market currently estimates Trump’s chances of winning at 61%.
During the press conference, Biden stumbled over his words several times and mistakenly referred to Harris as Vice President Trump. He also elaborated on foreign policy issues following the NATO summit and at one point raised his voice when discussing American children killed by gun violence.
The current President of the United States reiterated that he plans to stay in the race. However, concerns about his age and cognitive health have led prominent Democrats and donors, including actor George Clooney, to widely call for the President to step down.
Hundreds of millions of dollars hinge on the election results on Polymarket, which is experiencing a breakthrough year despite having to geofence U.S. users to comply with regulatory agreements. The platform’s bets are programmed into smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain.