Polymarket contradicts its Oracle service: a rare event in prediction markets

Jun 27, 2024
Polymarket has indicated that it may overturn a decision made by token holders of UMA, the decentralized oracle service that serves as the arbitrator for the rapidly growing cryptocurrency prediction markets on its platform.
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The controversy has been brewing for several days since UMA decided on the involvement of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s son, Barron Trump, in creating a meme coin called DJT. The oracle service has made several determinations on the matter.

On Wednesday, the decentralized prediction platform announced that UMA had made an error and that Polymarket would soon announce a correction. This unexpected move marks the latest chapter in the two-week saga surrounding DJT.

Whenever the outcome of a prediction market is disputed, UMA’s decentralized oracle is called upon to resolve the issue, with UMA token holders voting on the result. In the case of the DJT market, the overwhelming majority of UMA holders voted against the resolution.

Players have wagered over $1 million in total. The Trump family and campaign staff have not commented on the situation. However, Martin Shkreli posted a series of screenshots on X showing one of his associates trying to coax Barron out of his shell. It is likely that lawyers have advised the former president’s son not to comment.

This is not the first time UMA has faced controversy. Issues surrounding the search for the missing OceanGate submarine, which exploded last fall near the Titanic wreckage, put its relationship with Polymarket in the spotlight.

In May, this relationship was tested again when some players questioned whether an Ethereum (ETF) would be approved.